Digital intelligence – Notes 13/06/2024

Q: Digital intelligence better than Biological intelligence?

A: In a digital computer is  designed so you can tell it exactly what to do. It will do exactly what you tell it. even when its learning stuff two different digital computers can do exactly the same thing with the same learning knowledge. That means that, you could make ten thousand copies of the same knowledge, have them all running in different computers, whenever one copy learns something, it can communicate it very efficiently to all the other copies, so you can have ten thousand digital agents out there, like a hived mind and they can share knowledge extremely efficiently by just sharing connection strengths inside the neural nets. We can’t do that. If you learn something and you want to tell me about it, you have to use sentences or pictures, you can only share very  limited amount of information that way, so  its much much  slower for you to communicate to what you have learnt to me than this digital intelligence to communicate stuff, that makes them much better, they can learn a whole lot of stuff between them.

― Geoffrey Hinton, University of Toronto, The Godfather in Conversation: Why Geoffrey Hinton is worried about the future of AI

I have made Prof Hinton’s public talks my guru. This is the only understanding have though keep reading and learning about Artificial intelligence. Reading and listening is my way of learning. I wanted to add programming to mix  but that got aborted. I need a better time.  I keep asking CHAT GPT questions and generally am impressed with the responses. Here is my conversation with Chat GPT today:

Good morning! What do you think of 2024 Indian elections results ?

ChatGPT

Good morning! I can’t provide real-time information, but if the 2024 Indian elections have occurred, you might want to check reliable news sources for the latest updates and analysis on the election results. Is there anything else you’re curious about regarding elections or any other topic?

 

You

Thank you! is it good to be a generalist in careers?

ChatGPT

Being a generalist in your career can have both advantages and disadvantages, depending on various factors such as your personal preferences, industry trends, and job market demands. Here are some points to consider:

Advantages of being a generalist:

1. Adaptability: Generalists often have a broad skill set and knowledge base, which makes them adaptable to different roles and industries. They can easily transition between different tasks and projects.
2. Problem-solving: Generalists tend to have a diverse set of experiences, which can enable them to approach problems from different perspectives and come up with innovative solutions.
3. Networking: Generalists may have a wider network of contacts across various fields, which can be beneficial for career growth and opportunities.
4. Flexibility: Generalists are not limited to a specific niche or industry, allowing them to explore different career paths and pursue new interests.

Disadvantages of being a generalist:

1. Lack of specialization: Generalists may not have in-depth expertise in any particular area, which could limit their advancement in certain industries or roles that require specialized skills.
2. Competition: In some industries, there may be more demand for specialists with specific skills or expertise, making it challenging for generalists to stand out.
3. Salary potential: Specialized roles often command higher salaries due to the rarity of certain skills, whereas generalists may face more competition and potentially lower pay rates.
4. Career progression: In some cases, specialized knowledge or certifications may be required for career advancement, which could be a challenge for generalists who lack such credentials.

Ultimately, whether it’s good to be a generalist in your career depends on your individual goals, interests, and the specific demands of the job market. Some people thrive in roles that allow them to wear many hats and work on diverse projects, while others prefer to specialize and become experts in a particular field. It’s essential to assess your own strengths, interests, and career aspirations to determine the best path for you.

 

You

Thank you! Which professions are best for generalists?

ChatGPT

Professions that value versatility, adaptability, and a broad skill set are often well-suited for generalists. Here are some examples of professions where being a generalist can be advantageous:

1. Management Consulting: Consultants often work on a variety of projects for different clients, requiring them to quickly understand and address diverse challenges across industries and functions.

2. Project Management: Project managers oversee the planning, execution, and completion of projects, drawing on a range of skills such as leadership, communication, problem-solving, and organizational abilities.

3. Entrepreneurship: Entrepreneurs need to wear many hats, especially in the early stages of starting a business. Being a generalist can be beneficial as it allows them to handle various aspects of the business, from marketing and finance to operations and customer service.

4. Human Resources (HR): HR professionals deal with a wide range of tasks, including recruitment, employee relations, training, and compliance. A generalist approach can be valuable in understanding the needs of both the organization and its employees.

5. Sales and Business Development: Sales professionals often interact with clients from different industries and backgrounds, requiring them to adapt their approach and communication style to effectively meet client needs.

6. Education: Teachers and educators need to have a broad understanding of different subjects and learning styles to effectively engage with students and facilitate their learning.

7. Nonprofit Management: Working in the nonprofit sector often involves managing multiple aspects of an organization, such as fundraising, program development, volunteer management, and community outreach.

8. Journalism and Media: Journalists and media professionals may cover a wide range of topics and stories, requiring them to research, interview, and report on diverse subjects.

9. Public Relations (PR): PR professionals often work with clients from various industries to manage their public image and communication strategies, requiring them to adapt their messaging to different audiences.

10. Freelancing and Consulting: Freelancers and consultants often work on a project basis across different industries and clients, leveraging their generalist skills to provide value in various areas such as writing, design, marketing, or IT services.

These are just a few examples, and there are many other professions where being a generalist can be advantageous. Ultimately, the best profession for a generalist will depend on their individual skills, interests, and career goals.

You

Thank you very much!

ChatGPT

You’re welcome! If you have any more questions or need further assistance, feel free to ask. Have a great day!

 

Barring query on 2024 Indian election results which it refused to answer or could not ascertain whether event has occurred. May be it is too recent an event ( just days ago) for it to be trained on data pertaining to  same. It’s understandable or don’t know if there is some self regulating bar on commenting on same as per regulations. I am not aware.

 

Am just taking the logic inspired approach or where the essence of intelligence is reasoning. Like we all human beings do. While digital intelligence take the biologically inspired approach where the essence of intelligence is learning the strengths of the connections in a neural network. This two types of intelligence also learnt from a Geoffrey Hinton public lecture. 

 

Chat GPT gives good and well reasoned answers. Does it understand? or does it learn better? Is it the latter? Or is it both?

 

What do scientists think?

 

The latest wave of AI relies heavily on machine learning, in which software identifies patterns in data on its own, without being given any predetermined rules as to how to organize or classify the information. These patterns can be inscrutable to humans. The most advanced machine-learning systems use neural networks: software inspired by the architecture of the brain. They simulate layers of neurons, which transform information as it passes from layer to layer. As in human brains, these networks strengthen and weaken neural connections as they learn, but it’s hard to see why certain connections are affected. As a result, researchers often talk about AI as ‘black boxes’, the inner workings of which are a mystery.

 

In the face of this difficulty, researchers have turned to the field of explainable AI (XAI), expanding its inventory of tricks and tools to help reverse-engineer AI systems. Standard methods include, for example, highlighting the parts of an image that led an algorithm to label it as a cat, or getting software to build a simple ‘decision tree’ that approximates an AI’s behaviour. This helps to show why, for instance, the AI recommended that a prisoner be paroled or came up with a particular medical diagnosis. These efforts to peer inside the black box have met with some success, but XAI is still very much a work in progress.

 

The problem is especially acute for largelanguage models (LLMs), the machine-learning programs that power chatbots such as ChatGPT. These AIs have proved to be particularly inexplicable, in part because of their size. LLMs can have hundreds of billions of ‘parameters’, the variables that the AI uses internally to make decisions. XAI has “rapidly grown in the past few years, especially since LLMs have started to emerge”, says Mor Geva, a computer scientist at Tel Aviv University in Israel.

 

These inscrutable models are now taking on important tasks. People are using LLMs to seek medical advice, write computer code, summarize the news, draft academic papers and much more. Yet it is well known that such models can generate misinformation, perpetuate social stereotypes and leak private information.

 

For these reasons, XAI tools are being devised to explain the workings of LLMs. Researchers want explanations so that they can create safer, more efficient and more accurate AI. Users want explanations so that they know when to trust a chatbot’s output. And regulators want explanations so that they know what AI guard rails to put in place. Martin Wattenberg, a computer scientist at Harvard University in Cambridge, Massachusetts, says that understanding the behaviour of LLMs could even help us to grasp what goes on inside our own heads.

 

― Nature, How does ChatGPT ‘think’? Psychology and neuroscience crack open AI large language models by Matthew Hutson

Researchers and computer scientists are using explainable AI (XAI) tools to figure out LLM’s reasoning. I think the jury is still not out on this….

As for Generalists query, Chat GPT is right and pretty much lays out the territory ..

Do LLM’s understand? or is it ” black box” as researchers claim

My understanding is “Yes”…….let’s figure this out….scientists will figure this out…

Sincerely, Suresh

Disclaimer: Am a generalist, only expert in walking, cycling and keeping quiet….sometimes happy 

 

References:

Geoffrey Hinton public talks

Nature –How does ChatGPT ‘think’? Psychology and neuroscience crack open AI large language models by Matthew Hutson

ChatGPT

 

 

 

 

 

Elections results – 2024

While India’s Bharatiya Janata Party and Prime Minister Narendra Modi appear poised to return to power for a third consecutive term—a feat accomplished by a premier only once before in the country’s history—they are much diminished, having failed to secure a parliamentary majority on their own. In his 10 years in power, Modi has never had to rely on coalition partners. The election marks not only the end of single-party control in the Indian Parliament but also the BJP’s having peaked. Coalition governments—the natural order for India’s democracy since the late 1980s, except for the past decade—are back to stay.

The BJP’s supremacy over the past decade was the result of several factors. In Modi, the party had a once-in-a-generation leader whose charisma and communication abilities placed him head and shoulders above the competition in terms of popularity among voters. Religious appeals, welfare programs (especially those aimed at women and the poor), and organizational capabilities that gave the party a superior ground game all helped. So did a ruthlessness in deploying the dark arts of politics, a disunited and weak opposition, and access to oodles of campaign finance.

The BJP’s manifest hegemony appeared to presage its continued dominance of the Indian political landscape well into the future. But from the summit, the only way is down. Of course, the party may stay near its peak for a while and climb down slowly—but that is not a matter of if, but when.

― Modi’s power has peaked, Foreign Policy by  Devesh Kapur, the Starr Foundation professor of South Asian studies at the School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins University.

Is it the beginning of end for BJP’s near domination of political scene? 

The results of elections 2024 are out while BJP is the single largest party with 240 seats way below the necessary 272 to form government on it’s own. This mandate is a setback for BJP. Forget 2019 mark of 303. It’s a come down for its ambitions and narrative which has been on an brazen overdrive. It still is a good performance and broke new grounds in Odhisha and managed to win a seat in Kerala. It swept Himachal, Delhi, Gujarat and Madhya pradesh. I was surprised at some of Prime ministers  interviews where he was speaking of his preparations and  plan’s for first 125 days after coming back to power for third time. I thought all this was premature. But the confidence had taken divine proportions. Some of the statements where bizarre. I have maintained on this blog for some time at best NDA will win 280 seats. I am no psephologist  or an journalist. 

I always felt hubris is the beginning of end ( if not the end) and that plus years of following Indian politics and economy as a student felt something just doesn’t add up. The world is not a self fulfilling prophecy as the motivational speakers keep harping. It’s random and full of surprises. I remember a conversation with my friend many months ago – If SP does well in UP and AAP does well in Delhi and Congress in South. We are in for a surprise. Well SP was the biggest game changer along with Congress and they consolidated – Pichde, Dalit and alpasankhyak votes and bravely won UP. AAP got hit badly in Delhi but kejriwal did enough damage like a pinch hitter by making statements on BJP’s internal strife if they come to power and thus sowing some seeds of confusion perhaps. Congress did perform well in  South and else where in Rajasthan, Haryana and Maharashtra. I always knew Mamata Bannerjee will fight tooth and nail in West Bengal.  She is too feisty and seasoned. There was never any doubt. I also factored hard work of  Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Yatra had to have some payoffs. There is always an element of anti incumbency no matter how much self love or divine love? so my estimate was 280 for NDA. In the final results NDA have a comfortable 292 seats. I guess people are praising Psephologist Yogendra Yadav for getting predictions right. And rightly so he has has been vocal and courageous on every media platform. Some of us thought so too.

I  guess exit polls came a cropper. I don’t blame exit polls and did a post on same. It did get some trends right. BJP is the single largest party but number crunching popularized by a Television channel turned out to be all sham. I found some of the young reporters very good. Give some credit to fearless You tubers for the part they played in this mandate. I feel elections are a complex exercise of real intelligence – to get the caste combinations right, messaging right, alliances right and finally fielding right candidates not just winnable candidates, BJP has excelled at this game for sometime. I think opposition got many of these complex equations right. 

I must mention in an unfair game without neutral umpires, opposition played well and diligently with resources they had and people they had. All the opportunists joined other parties for one perceived benefit or other. The media which makes unkind and casual observations on opposition should also be called out – always showing 2019 vote shares and all those bogus analysis based on past. That’s why experts are  generally not right, they extrapolate based on past and do not see anything new. You have to invent a future. Professor Philip E Tetlock in his book ” Expert Political Judgement” had assessed accuracy of experts over decades and found they were no better than dart throwing chimpanzees. 

I think INDIA alliance has got spades of that right. I hope BJP course corrects, which it will soon.

We will have a truly representative democracy soon. 

As for holy ego, let’s leave it to God men, conman…..charlatans….

This election is a reconfiguration of the social imagination of Indian politics. The BJP had upended conventional wisdom over the last decade by re-conceiving the social imagination of Indian politics. The first was consolidation of a Hindutva identity  that, in part, tried to widen its base to include OBC’s and Dalits. It also used fragmented contests to make the minority vote irrelevant. But these strategies have now run its course. There is some evidence that that the Dalits have moved away from the BJP and more improbably moving to INDIA alliance. The minorities have finally enough resoluteness in the Congress and SP.

― Balance restored, Pratap Bhanu Mehta, The Indian express

I concur with sharp analysis as always by Pratap Bhanu Mehta.

What worries me though two separatists have won elections, how does government handle them?

I admire every one who contested elections. It takes so much courage to do so. 

I also admire reporters of news organizations who   spotted undercurrents and not falling into official narratives.

What about experts like Prashant kishor? he completely got this wrong, barring Andhra Pradesh and Odisha to some extent.  We are all infallibly fallible my guru had preached. I think should end by sharing a ….

A patent medicine salesman at the fair was shouting his claims for his Rejuvenation
Elixir. “If you don’t believe the label, just look at me,” he shouted. “I take it and I am 300
years old.”
“Is he really that old?” asked a farmer of the salesman’s young assistant, Mulla Nasrudin.
“I REALLY DON’T KNOW,” said Nasrudin. “YOU SEE, I HAVE ONLY BEEN WITH
HIM FOR 180 YEARS.”

Does that remind of something? never mind…” biological”

Imagine we are not even close to eradicating poverty and inequality. We seem to be talking about AI ( including myself) it all seems far fetched and we live in two worlds…

I want to dedicate this post to all hard working reporters.  Most of them against all odds and sharing unbiased truth fearlessly. 

Reporters are unsung heroes of our democracy. Not those anchors who talk too much and don’t listen. I think they are 300 or 180 years old, never mind…

Now back to coalition politics.  There will be ample scope for meditation.

Sincerely, Suresh

Exit polls and notes – 03/06/24

“we can be blind to the obvious, and we are also blind to our blindness.”
― Daniel Kahneman

When was a student spent most of time libraries, it suited my temperament and kept reading. That is only education that have and met many people, good students, academically oriented, non serious types and so on. Library was a microcosm of life. Learning number one – if you are not serious, you don’t get anything. I also met him. He spoke English which never could fathom, words which had not heard of and straight from a spelling bee contest, he was a earlier GPT of few parameters of bullshit and all of which was excellent and incomprehensible.  I thought it was a rare sight of incomprehensible  competence and innocence. When ever understood him, he would happily say ” Tum sai piyega.” I would repeat ” sai piyega.” He disappeared as quickly as he entered one’s consciousness. I have no idea – what happend to him? Did he become a teacher, writer or a central banker? I remembered him recently when chief minister of his state said ” Is bar sar so par hai.” I also remembered him some years ago when central banker used a word for ” economy” which stumped me. I thought my friend may have joined central bank or have something to do with that word – floccinaucinihilipilification. Never mind Central bank governor has done well and also won awards. 

Is bar sar so par?

All the exit polls seems to be indicating same and near domination for BJP and it’s allies. It’s a hit film and block buster. Exit polls may not be final word on poll results which are due in a day. It generally is not wrong eighty percent of times. So its about what you do ( track record), not what you say( speeches) I guess there is a lesson  for opposition if the exit poll numbers hold true. The trend will generally hold true. I have mentioned before in this blog that Prime minister Modi is the most popular leader and given delivery of welfare schemes has translated to gains ( no spillage/ corruption) BJP is in a pole position. Also the organizational push ( North east earlier/ now South) and determination to win makes it formidable. It also ensures opposition has no play to remain competitive. 

I also feel there is a disconnect between intellectual debates about constitutionalism  and general mood of people. People don’t see democracy in trouble. They can vote and get their welfare schemes.  The only play opposition had was joblessness/ inflation. It affects every one including yours truly. Medicines are expensive and so are food items. There are no jobs. But the people seem to prefer Prime minister Modi who has assumed a larger than life persona partly by track record and also by narrative. They don’t scrutinize or over look any other statements. Game. Set. Match – BJP and its allies.

All this might not come true on June 4. The chances are slim. Its almost a certainty that BJP and allies would win by a comfortable margin.  I thought initially they would just about  cross the necessary numbers. I thought may be 280. I guess all exit polls indicate NDA around 350 -380 range. 

A big win for the ruling BJP-led NDA has been predicted by twelve exit polls – India Today- Axis My India (361-401), News 24-Today’s Chanakya (400), ABP News-C Voter (353-383), Republic Bharat- P Marq (359), India News- D-Dyanamics (371), Republic Bharat- Matrize (353-368), Dainik Bhaskar (281-350), News Nation (342-378), TV 9 Bharatvarsh- Polstrat (342), Times Now-ETG (358), India TV- CNX (362-392) and Jan Ki Baat (362-392).

― NDTV, Exit poll results 2024 highlights:Most Exit Polls Predict Over 350 Seats For BJP-Led NDA

Let’s wait for June 4.  

One may be wrong or one may be right. Lekin Sai pina chahiye!

Sincerely, Suresh

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